Queensland Reds vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Queensland Reds 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% SharksSharks 71.8%draw 2.5%25.7% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 35.7%draw 2.5%61.8% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Queensland Reds wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Sharks and 16 Queensland Reds, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Queensland Reds are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Queensland Reds, negative favours Sharks.
Queensland Reds 1454, Sharks 1613 — 159 points, favouring Sharks
Queensland Reds are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Queensland Reds2–0–2Sharks4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Sharks by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Queensland Reds 23–33 Sharks | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2019-04-19 | Sharks 14–21 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2017-02-24 | Queensland Reds 28–26 Sharks | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2015-05-22 | Queensland Reds 14–21 Sharks | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.