Queensland Reds vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Queensland Reds 44.3%draw 2.5%53.2% StormersStormers 79.2%draw 2.5%18.3% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 33.1%draw 2.5%64.4% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Queensland Reds wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stormers and 15 Queensland Reds, with the middle run at 1 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Queensland Reds are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Queensland Reds, negative favours Stormers.
Queensland Reds 1454, Stormers 1716 — 262 points, favouring Stormers
Queensland Reds are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Queensland Reds1–0–2Stormers3 meetings, 2016 to 2019 · Stormers by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-05 | Queensland Reds 24–12 Stormers | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2018-03-24 | Stormers 25–19 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2016-04-23 | Stormers 40–22 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.