Queensland Reds vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Queensland Reds 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% Western ForceWestern Force 63.5%draw 2.5%34.0% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 52.5%draw 2.5%45.0% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Queensland Reds v Western Force, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Queensland Reds wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Western Force and 24 Queensland Reds, half of them between 1 Western Force and 14 Queensland Reds, with the middle run at 5 Queensland Reds.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 34-29 on an open one.
Why Queensland Reds are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Queensland Reds winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Queensland Reds, a bar to the left helps Western Force.
Queensland Reds 1460, Western Force 1471 — 11 points, favouring Western Force
Queensland Reds are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Queensland Reds11–0–7Western Force18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Queensland Reds by 8.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Queensland Reds by 9.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Western Force 19–14 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2026-04-04 | Queensland Reds 19–42 Western Force | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-03-29 | Queensland Reds 28–24 Western Force | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Western Force 24–28 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2024-05-25 | Queensland Reds 59–13 Western Force | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.