Queensland Reds vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Queensland Reds 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% Western ForceWestern Force 55.0%draw 2.5%42.5% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 54.6%draw 2.5%42.9% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Queensland Reds wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Western Force and 24 Queensland Reds, with the middle run at 5 Queensland Reds.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Queensland Reds are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Queensland Reds, negative favours Western Force.
Queensland Reds 1454, Western Force 1463 — 9 points, favouring Western Force
Queensland Reds are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Queensland Reds11–0–7Western Force18 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Queensland Reds by 8.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Queensland Reds by 9.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Western Force 19–14 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2026-04-04 | Queensland Reds 19–42 Western Force | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-03-29 | Queensland Reds 28–24 Western Force | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Western Force 24–28 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2024-05-25 | Queensland Reds 59–13 Western Force | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.