Racing 92 vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 52.7%draw 2.5%44.8% SaracensSaracens 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% Racing 92Racing 92 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Saracens and 21 Racing 92, half of them between 6 Saracens and 10 Racing 92, with the middle run at 1 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Racing 92 1632, Saracens 1861 — 229 points, favouring Saracens
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 922–0–3Saracens5 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Racing 92 by 1.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-26 | Racing 92 19–15 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2020-01-19 | Saracens 27–24 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2019-11-17 | Racing 92 30–10 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2016-05-14 | Racing 92 9–21 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Groupama Stadium |
| 2015-04-05 | Racing 92 11–12 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.