Racing 92 vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 56.3%draw 2.5%41.2% SaracensSaracens 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% Racing 92Racing 92 42.8%draw 2.5%54.7% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Saracens and 22 Racing 92, with the middle run at 2 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours Saracens.
Racing 92 1707, Saracens 1802 — 95 points, favouring Saracens
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 922–0–3Saracens5 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Racing 92 by 1.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-26 | Racing 92 19–15 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2020-01-19 | Saracens 27–24 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2019-11-17 | Racing 92 30–10 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2016-05-14 | Racing 92 9–21 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Groupama Stadium |
| 2015-04-05 | Racing 92 11–12 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.