Racing 92 vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 79.5%draw 2.5%18.0% ScarletsScarlets 35.2%draw 2.5%62.3% Racing 92Racing 92 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Scarlets and 33 Racing 92, with the middle run at 9 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours Scarlets.
Racing 92 1707, Scarlets 1334 — 373 points, favouring Racing 92
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 924–0–0Scarlets4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Racing 92 by 20.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-19 | Racing 92 46–33 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2018-10-13 | Scarlets 13–14 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2016-01-17 | Racing 92 64–14 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2015-11-21 | Scarlets 12–29 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.