Racing 92 vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 78.6%draw 2.5%18.9% ScarletsScarlets 43.2%draw 2.5%54.3% Racing 92Racing 92 68.6%draw 2.5%28.9% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scarlets and 35 Racing 92, half of them between 1 Racing 92 and 22 Racing 92, with the middle run at 10 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Racing 92 1632, Scarlets 1273 — 359 points, favouring Racing 92
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 924–0–0Scarlets4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Racing 92 by 20.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-19 | Racing 92 46–33 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2018-10-13 | Scarlets 13–14 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2016-01-17 | Racing 92 64–14 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2015-11-21 | Scarlets 12–29 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.