Racing 92 vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 68.8%draw 2.5%28.7% Racing 92Racing 92 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Stade Francais Paris and 16 Racing 92, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Racing 92 1707, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 68 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 9216–1–8Stade Francais Paris25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 3.9 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Racing 92 by 1.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Racing 92 47–20 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-12-20 | Stade Francais Paris 20–20 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-04-27 | Racing 92 49–24 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-11-24 | Stade Francais Paris 40–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-02-24 | Racing 92 11–27 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.