Racing 92 vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 73.8%draw 2.5%23.7% Racing 92Racing 92 44.2%draw 2.5%53.3% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 24 Racing 92, half of them between 3 Stade Francais Paris and 14 Racing 92, with the middle run at 4 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Racing 92 1632, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 99 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 9217–1–9Stade Francais Paris27 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 3.5 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Racing 92 by 1.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Racing 92 47–20 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-12-20 | Stade Francais Paris 20–20 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-04-27 | Racing 92 49–24 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-11-24 | Stade Francais Paris 40–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-02-24 | Racing 92 11–27 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.