Racing 92 vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 53.8%draw 2.5%43.7% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% Racing 92Racing 92 40.4%draw 2.5%57.1% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Toulousain and 19 Racing 92, with the middle run at 1 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Racing 92 1707, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 156 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 9210–1–15Stade Toulousain26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 7.2 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stade Toulousain by 17.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Stade Toulousain 71–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2026-06-06 | Racing 92 31–20 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-11-29 | Stade Toulousain 48–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-05-17 | Stade Toulousain 35–37 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-04-27 | Stade Toulousain 32–12 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.