Racing 92 vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 50.9%draw 2.5%46.6% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% Racing 92Racing 92 28.9%draw 2.5%68.6% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Toulousain and 19 Racing 92, half of them between 7 Stade Toulousain and 9 Racing 92, with the middle run at 1 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Racing 92 1632, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 360 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 9210–0–17Stade Toulousain27 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 7.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Stade Toulousain by 15.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Stade Toulousain 71–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Orange Velodrome |
| 2026-06-06 | Racing 92 31–20 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-11-29 | Stade Toulousain 48–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-05-17 | Stade Toulousain 35–37 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-11-30 | Racing 92 17–21 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.