Racing 92 vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% StormersStormers 76.3%draw 2.5%21.2% Racing 92Racing 92 36.1%draw 2.5%61.4% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stormers and 21 Racing 92, half of them between 7 Stormers and 10 Racing 92, with the middle run at 1 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Racing 92 1632, Stormers 1845 — 214 points, favouring Stormers
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 921–0–0Stormers1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Racing 92 by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Racing 92 31–22 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.