Racing 92 vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 58.9%draw 2.5%38.6% StormersStormers 64.4%draw 2.5%33.1% Racing 92Racing 92 46.0%draw 2.5%51.5% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stormers and 26 Racing 92, with the middle run at 3 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours Stormers.
Racing 92 1707, Stormers 1716 — 8 points, favouring Stormers
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 921–0–0Stormers1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Racing 92 by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Racing 92 31–22 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.