Racing 92 vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 72.5%draw 2.5%25.0% ToulonToulon 43.6%draw 2.5%53.9% Racing 92Racing 92 64.3%draw 2.5%33.2% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Toulon and 31 Racing 92, with the middle run at 8 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours Toulon.
Racing 92 1707, Toulon 1435 — 273 points, favouring Racing 92
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 9215–1–9Toulon25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 4.3 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Racing 92 by 6.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Racing 92 43–28 Toulon | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-10-19 | Toulon 45–21 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-01-04 | Toulon 36–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-10-12 | Racing 92 22–6 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2024-03-10 | Racing 92 20–6 Toulon | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.