Racing 92 vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 67.7%draw 2.5%29.8% ToulonToulon 70.3%draw 2.5%27.2% Racing 92Racing 92 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Toulon and 29 Racing 92, half of them between 2 Toulon and 17 Racing 92, with the middle run at 6 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Racing 92 1632, Toulon 1663 — 31 points, favouring Toulon
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 9215–0–10Toulon25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 3.7 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Racing 92 by 4.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Toulon 29–15 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2026-05-16 | Racing 92 43–28 Toulon | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-10-19 | Toulon 45–21 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-01-04 | Toulon 36–24 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-10-12 | Racing 92 22–6 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.