Racing 92 vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Racing 92 88.9%draw 2.5%8.6% US MontaubanRacing 92 85.8%draw 2.5%11.7% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Racing 92 and 41 Racing 92, with the middle run at 14 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 41-27 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Racing 92, negative favours US Montauban.
Racing 92 1707, US Montauban 824 — 883 points, favouring Racing 92
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 922–0–0US Montauban2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 47.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | US Montauban 10–59 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
| 2025-12-27 | Racing 92 61–16 US Montauban | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.