Racing 92 vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Racing 92 86.4%draw 2.5%11.1% VannesVannes 41.1%draw 2.5%56.4% Racing 92Racing 92 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Racing 92 v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Racing 92 wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Vannes and 36 Racing 92, half of them between 4 Racing 92 and 24 Racing 92, with the middle run at 12 Racing 92.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Racing 92 are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Racing 92 winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Racing 92, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Racing 92 1632, Vannes 1280 — 351 points, favouring Racing 92
Racing 92 are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Racing 921–0–1Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Vannes by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Racing 92 25–30 Vannes | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-10-05 | Vannes 24–27 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.