Romania vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 74.8%draw 2.7%22.5% RussiaRussia 40.1%draw 2.7%57.2% RomaniaRomania 68.2%draw 2.7%29.1% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Romania v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Russia and 42 Romania, half of them between level and 28 Romania, with the middle run at 11 Romania.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Romania are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Romania 1265, Russia 1137 — 128 points, favouring Romania
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania17–1–8Russia26 meetings, 1994 to 2022 · Romania by 9.0 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Romania by 8.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-05 | Romania 34–25 Russia | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2021-03-06 | Russia 18–13 Romania | — | Olympic Stadium Fisht |
| 2020-03-07 | Russia 32–25 Romania | — | Krasnodar Stadium |
| 2019-03-09 | Romania 22–20 Russia | — | Stadionul Municipal |
| 2018-03-03 | Romania 25–15 Russia | — | Cluj Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.