Romania vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Romania 6.1%92.9% ScotlandScotland 96.1%2.9% RomaniaRomania 4.4%94.6% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 53 Scotland and 1 Scotland, with the middle run at 20 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-12 on a tight afternoon and 44-24 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Romania, negative favours Scotland.
Romania 788, Scotland 1730 — 942 points, favouring Scotland
Romania are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania0–0–4Scotland4 meetings, 1987 to 2023 · Scotland by 40.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-30 | Scotland 84–0 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2011-09-10 | Scotland 34–24 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Invercargill Rugby Park(neutral) |
| 2007-09-18 | Scotland 42–0 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 1987-06-02 | Scotland 55–28 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Carisbrook(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.