Romania vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 4.7%94.3% ScotlandScotland 97.3%1.7% RomaniaRomania 3.1%95.9% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 55 Scotland and 1 Scotland, half of them between 39 Scotland and 8 Scotland, with the middle run at 20 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 39 and 89 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-28 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Romania 1265, Scotland 2193 — 928 points, favouring Scotland
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania2–0–12Scotland14 meetings, 1981 to 2023 · Scotland by 26.2 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · Scotland by 32.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-30 | Scotland 84–0 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2011-09-10 | Scotland 34–24 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Invercargill Rugby Park(neutral) |
| 2007-09-18 | Scotland 42–0 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2006-11-11 | Scotland 48–6 Romania | — | Murrayfield |
| 2005-06-05 | Romania 19–39 Scotland | — | Stadionul Dinamo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.