Romania vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 4.5%94.5% South AfricaSouth Africa 97.4%1.6% RomaniaRomania 3.1%95.9% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 58 South Africa and 2 South Africa, half of them between 40 South Africa and 8 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 42 and 97 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 37-16 on a tight afternoon and 51-30 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Romania 1265, South Africa 2512 — 1247 points, favouring South Africa
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania0–0–2South Africa2 meetings, 1995 to 2023 · South Africa by 44.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-17 | South Africa 76–0 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 1995-05-30 | South Africa 21–8 Romania | Rugby World Cup | DHL Newlands |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.