Romania vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 39.8%draw 1.7%58.5% SpainSpain 79.8%draw 1.7%18.5% RomaniaRomania 30.3%draw 1.7%68.0% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Romania v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Spain and 15 Romania, half of them between 9 Spain and 5 Romania, with the middle run at 1 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Romania 1265, Spain 1566 — 301 points, favouring Spain
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania36–0–7Spain43 meetings, 1958 to 2026 · Romania by 15.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Spain by 0.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Spain 29–23 Romania | — | Estadio Ontime Butarque |
| 2024-03-17 | Romania 33–40 Spain | — | Stade Jean Bouin(neutral) |
| 2023-03-19 | Spain 25–31 Romania | — | Estadio Nuevo Vivero |
| 2022-02-27 | Spain 38–21 Romania | — | Estadio Nacional Universidad Complutense |
| 2021-03-20 | Romania 22–16 Spain | — | Stadionul de rugby din Complexul Sportiv Ghencea |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 43. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.