Romania vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 38.9%draw 2.4%58.7% TongaTonga 75.3%draw 2.4%22.3% RomaniaRomania 30.4%draw 2.4%67.2% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Romania v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Tonga and 16 Romania, half of them between 13 Tonga and 5 Romania, with the middle run at 3 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Romania 1265, Tonga 1454 — 189 points, favouring Tonga
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania3–0–3Tonga6 meetings, 2013 to 2024 · Tonga by 1.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Romania 25–15 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2023-10-08 | Tonga 45–24 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2021-11-20 | Romania 32–20 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2017-11-25 | Romania 20–25 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2015-09-05 | Romania 16–21 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.