Romania vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Romania 45.7%draw 2.6%51.7% TongaTonga 75.8%draw 2.6%21.6% RomaniaRomania 33.6%draw 2.6%63.8% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 28 Tonga and 15 Romania, with the middle run at 1 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Romania, negative favours Tonga.
Romania 788, Tonga 938 — 150 points, favouring Tonga
Romania are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania2–0–3Tonga5 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · Tonga by 1.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-09 | Romania 25–15 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2023-10-08 | Tonga 45–24 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Stade Pierre Mauroy |
| 2021-11-20 | Romania 32–20 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2017-11-25 | Romania 20–25 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2015-09-05 | Romania 16–21 Tonga | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.