Romania vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Romania 26.2%draw 1.2%72.6% UruguayUruguay 85.3%draw 1.2%13.5% RomaniaRomania 19.8%draw 1.2%79.0% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 45 Uruguay and 8 Romania, with the middle run at 11 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Romania, negative favours Uruguay.
Romania 788, Uruguay 1177 — 389 points, favouring Uruguay
Romania are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania3–0–6Uruguay9 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Uruguay by 4.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Romania 21–31 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2025-07-12 | Uruguay 70–8 Romania | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2024-11-23 | Romania 21–23 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2022-11-13 | Romania 16–21 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2022-07-17 | Uruguay 26–20 Romania | — | Estadio Charrua |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.