Romania vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Romania 37.0%draw 2.0%61.0% UruguayUruguay 81.0%draw 2.0%17.0% RomaniaRomania 26.7%draw 2.0%71.3% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Romania v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Romania wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 Uruguay and 15 Romania, half of them between 14 Uruguay and 5 Romania, with the middle run at 3 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Romania are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Romania winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Romania, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Romania 1265, Uruguay 1520 — 255 points, favouring Uruguay
Romania are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Romania9–2–6Uruguay17 meetings, 2008 to 2026 · Romania by 4.2 on average
Last 10: 3–1–6 · Uruguay by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Uruguay 36–36 Romania | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2025-11-22 | Romania 21–31 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2025-07-12 | Uruguay 70–8 Romania | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 2024-11-23 | Romania 21–23 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2022-11-13 | Romania 16–21 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 17. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.