Russia vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Russia 3.7%95.3% ScotlandScotland 97.2%1.8% RussiaRussia 2.7%96.3% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Russia v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 55 Scotland and 2 Scotland, half of them between 39 Scotland and 8 Scotland, with the middle run at 21 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 40 and 92 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 50-29 on an open one.
Why Russia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Russia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Russia, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Russia 1137, Scotland 2193 — 1056 points, favouring Scotland
Russia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia0–0–1Scotland1 meeting, 2019 to 2019 · Scotland by 61.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-09 | Scotland 61–0 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.