Russia vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Russia 30.5%68.5% SpainSpain 89.5%9.5% RussiaRussia 21.1%77.9% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Russia v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Spain and 14 Russia, half of them between 13 Spain and 3 Russia, with the middle run at 4 Spain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-20 on a tight afternoon and 36-32 on an open one.
Why Russia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Russia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Russia, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Russia 1137, Spain 1566 — 429 points, favouring Spain
Russia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia16–0–9Spain25 meetings, 1994 to 2022 · Russia by 3.2 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Spain by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-12 | Russia 37–41 Spain | — | FGUP Yug-Sport |
| 2021-11-14 | Spain 49–12 Russia | — | Estadio Nacional Universidad Complutense |
| 2020-02-01 | Russia 12–31 Spain | — | Olympic Stadium Fisht |
| 2019-02-10 | Spain 16–14 Russia | — | Estadio Central |
| 2018-02-10 | Russia 13–20 Spain | — | Krasnodar Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.