Russia vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Russia 26.5%draw 1.2%72.3% UruguayUruguay 89.3%draw 1.3%9.4% RussiaRussia 17.7%draw 1.2%81.1% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Russia v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Russia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 Uruguay and 14 Russia, half of them between 16 Uruguay and 1 Russia, with the middle run at 5 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-19 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Russia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Russia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Russia, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Russia 1137, Uruguay 1520 — 383 points, favouring Uruguay
Russia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Russia4–0–5Uruguay9 meetings, 2008 to 2019 · Uruguay by 1.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-04 | Uruguay 48–26 Russia | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2017-06-14 | Uruguay 32–29 Russia | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2014-10-11 | Uruguay 36–27 Russia | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2014-09-27 | Russia 22–21 Uruguay | — | Central Stadium |
| 2014-06-22 | Russia 6–13 Uruguay | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.