Sale Sharks vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sale Sharks 43.6%draw 2.5%53.9% SaracensSaracens 79.0%draw 2.5%18.5% Sale SharksSale Sharks 28.4%draw 2.5%69.1% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sale Sharks v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Saracens and 16 Sale Sharks, half of them between 9 Saracens and 7 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sale Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sale Sharks, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Sale Sharks 1504, Saracens 1861 — 357 points, favouring Saracens
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks8–1–16Saracens25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 11.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Saracens by 11.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Saracens 17–21 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2026-04-19 | Sale Sharks 19–85 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-10-18 | Saracens 65–14 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-04-25 | Sale Sharks 25–7 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Saracens 45–26 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.