Sale Sharks vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 46.0%draw 2.5%51.5% SaracensSaracens 71.1%draw 2.5%26.4% Sale SharksSale Sharks 35.2%draw 2.5%62.3% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Saracens and 15 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sale Sharks, negative favours Saracens.
Sale Sharks 1558, Saracens 1802 — 244 points, favouring Saracens
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks7–1–16Saracens24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 12.5 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Saracens by 12.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Sale Sharks 19–85 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-10-18 | Saracens 65–14 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-04-25 | Sale Sharks 25–7 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-09-28 | Saracens 45–26 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Saracens 10–20 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.