Sale Sharks vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sale Sharks 76.0%draw 2.5%21.5% ScarletsScarlets 48.8%draw 2.5%48.7% Sale SharksSale Sharks 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sale Sharks v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Scarlets and 31 Sale Sharks, half of them between 1 Sale Sharks and 20 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 8 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sale Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sale Sharks, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Sale Sharks 1504, Scarlets 1273 — 231 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks2–0–1Scarlets3 meetings, 2016 to 2021 · Sale Sharks by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-04 | Scarlets 14–57 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2017-01-21 | Sale Sharks 25–23 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2016-10-15 | Scarlets 28–11 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.