Sale Sharks vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% ScarletsScarlets 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% Sale SharksSale Sharks 62.5%draw 2.5%35.0% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Scarlets and 30 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 7 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sale Sharks, negative favours Scarlets.
Sale Sharks 1558, Scarlets 1334 — 224 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks2–0–1Scarlets3 meetings, 2016 to 2021 · Sale Sharks by 9.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-04 | Scarlets 14–57 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2017-01-21 | Sale Sharks 25–23 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2016-10-15 | Scarlets 28–11 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.