Sale Sharks vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sale Sharks 54.6%draw 2.5%42.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% Sale SharksSale Sharks 37.3%draw 2.5%60.2% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sale Sharks v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stade Francais Paris and 25 Sale Sharks, half of them between 5 Stade Francais Paris and 13 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 2 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sale Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sale Sharks, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Sale Sharks 1504, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 227 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks1–0–0Stade Francais Paris1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Sale Sharks by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-10 | Sale Sharks 28–5 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.