Sale Sharks vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sale Sharks 33.3%draw 2.5%64.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% Sale SharksSale Sharks 21.7%draw 2.5%75.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sale Sharks v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Stade Toulousain and 13 Sale Sharks, half of them between 13 Stade Toulousain and 4 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 4 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sale Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sale Sharks, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Sale Sharks 1504, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 488 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks0–1–5Stade Toulousain6 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 24.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Stade Toulousain 77–7 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-04-06 | Stade Toulousain 38–15 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2023-01-14 | Sale Sharks 5–27 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2022-12-18 | Stade Toulousain 45–19 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2018-01-20 | Stade Toulousain 28–21 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.