Sale Sharks vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 40.6%draw 2.5%56.9% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% Sale SharksSale Sharks 30.7%draw 2.5%66.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Toulousain and 15 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sale Sharks, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Sale Sharks 1558, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 305 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks0–1–5Stade Toulousain6 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 24.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Stade Toulousain 77–7 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-04-06 | Stade Toulousain 38–15 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2023-01-14 | Sale Sharks 5–27 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2022-12-18 | Stade Toulousain 45–19 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2018-01-20 | Stade Toulousain 28–21 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.