Sale Sharks vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% StormersStormers 74.2%draw 2.5%23.3% Sale SharksSale Sharks 36.4%draw 2.5%61.1% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stormers and 22 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 1 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sale Sharks, negative favours Stormers.
Sale Sharks 1558, Stormers 1716 — 157 points, favouring Stormers
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks0–0–2Stormers2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Stormers by 23.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Stormers 40–0 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-01-13 | Stormers 31–24 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | DHL Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.