Sale Sharks vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sale Sharks 65.3%draw 2.5%32.2% ToulonToulon 52.8%draw 2.5%44.7% Sale SharksSale Sharks 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Toulon and 28 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 5 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sale Sharks, negative favours Toulon.
Sale Sharks 1558, Toulon 1435 — 124 points, favouring Sale Sharks
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks1–0–3Toulon4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Toulon by 2.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Sale Sharks 33–7 Toulon | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2020-12-12 | Toulon 26–14 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2017-01-15 | Toulon 27–12 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2016-10-21 | Sale Sharks 5–15 Toulon | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.