Sale Sharks vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sale Sharks 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% ToulonToulon 72.1%draw 2.5%25.4% Sale SharksSale Sharks 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sale Sharks v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sale Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Toulon and 22 Sale Sharks, half of them between 6 Toulon and 11 Sale Sharks, with the middle run at 2 Sale Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Sale Sharks are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sale Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sale Sharks, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Sale Sharks 1504, Toulon 1663 — 159 points, favouring Toulon
Sale Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sale Sharks1–0–3Toulon4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Toulon by 2.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Sale Sharks 33–7 Toulon | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2020-12-12 | Toulon 26–14 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2017-01-15 | Toulon 27–12 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2016-10-21 | Sale Sharks 5–15 Toulon | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.