Saracens vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Saracens 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% ScarletsScarlets 28.6%draw 2.5%68.9% SaracensSaracens 76.0%draw 2.5%21.5% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 35 Saracens, with the middle run at 11 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Saracens, negative favours Scarlets.
Saracens 1802, Scarlets 1334 — 468 points, favouring Saracens
Saracens are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens1–1–0Scarlets2 meetings, 2016 to 2017 · Saracens by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-15 | Scarlets 22–22 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2016-10-22 | Saracens 44–26 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.