Saracens vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Saracens 66.9%draw 2.5%30.6% SharksSharks 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% SaracensSaracens 51.2%draw 2.5%46.3% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Saracens v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Sharks and 26 Saracens, half of them between 2 Sharks and 15 Saracens, with the middle run at 5 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Saracens winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Saracens, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Saracens 1861, Sharks 1746 — 115 points, favouring Saracens
Saracens are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens0–0–1Sharks1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Sharks by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Sharks 28–23 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.