Saracens vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Saracens 62.5%draw 2.5%35.0% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 65.5%draw 2.5%32.0% SaracensSaracens 47.2%draw 2.5%50.3% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stade Toulousain and 26 Saracens, with the middle run at 4 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Saracens, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Saracens 1802, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 61 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Saracens are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens3–0–0Stade Toulousain3 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Saracens 20–14 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2016-01-23 | Stade Toulousain 17–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2015-11-14 | Saracens 32–7 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.