Saracens vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Saracens 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% SaracensSaracens 42.5%draw 2.5%55.0% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Saracens v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Toulousain and 23 Saracens, half of them between 5 Stade Toulousain and 13 Saracens, with the middle run at 3 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Saracens winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Saracens, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Saracens 1861, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 131 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Saracens are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens3–0–0Stade Toulousain3 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Saracens 20–14 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2016-01-23 | Stade Toulousain 17–28 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2015-11-14 | Saracens 32–7 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.