Saracens vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Saracens 71.8%draw 2.5%25.7% ToulonToulon 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% SaracensSaracens 58.0%draw 2.5%39.5% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Saracens v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Toulon and 30 Saracens, half of them between 1 Toulon and 18 Saracens, with the middle run at 7 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Saracens winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Saracens, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Saracens 1861, Toulon 1663 — 198 points, favouring Saracens
Saracens are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens2–0–2Toulon4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Toulon by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Toulon 72–42 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2022-05-14 | Toulon 25–16 Saracens | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2017-01-21 | Saracens 10–3 Toulon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2016-10-15 | Toulon 23–31 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.