Saracens vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Saracens 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% ToulonToulon 35.8%draw 2.5%61.7% SaracensSaracens 70.5%draw 2.5%27.0% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Saracens wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Toulon and 32 Saracens, with the middle run at 9 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Saracens are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Saracens, negative favours Toulon.
Saracens 1802, Toulon 1435 — 367 points, favouring Saracens
Saracens are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Saracens2–0–2Toulon4 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Toulon by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Toulon 72–42 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2022-05-14 | Toulon 25–16 Saracens | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2017-01-21 | Saracens 10–3 Toulon | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2016-10-15 | Toulon 23–31 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.