Scarlets vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Scarlets 35.3%draw 2.5%62.2% SharksSharks 82.8%draw 2.5%14.7% ScarletsScarlets 22.2%draw 2.5%75.3% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scarlets v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Sharks and 15 Scarlets, half of them between 12 Sharks and 5 Scarlets, with the middle run at 3 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scarlets winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scarlets, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Scarlets 1273, Sharks 1746 — 473 points, favouring Sharks
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets1–0–4Sharks5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Sharks by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Sharks 29–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-05-17 | Sharks 12–3 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-04-26 | Scarlets 27–32 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-03-25 | Scarlets 32–20 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-03-11 | Sharks 37–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.