Scarlets vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Scarlets 36.2%draw 2.5%61.3% SharksSharks 78.3%draw 2.5%19.2% ScarletsScarlets 27.4%draw 2.5%70.1% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Sharks and 13 Scarlets, with the middle run at 2 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scarlets, negative favours Sharks.
Scarlets 1334, Sharks 1613 — 278 points, favouring Sharks
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets1–0–4Sharks5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Sharks by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Sharks 29–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-05-17 | Sharks 12–3 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-04-26 | Scarlets 27–32 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-03-25 | Scarlets 32–20 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-03-11 | Sharks 37–20 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.