Scarlets vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Scarlets 34.5%draw 2.5%63.0% StormersStormers 81.2%draw 2.5%16.3% ScarletsScarlets 25.9%draw 2.5%71.6% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Stormers and 13 Scarlets, with the middle run at 4 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scarlets, negative favours Stormers.
Scarlets 1334, Stormers 1716 — 381 points, favouring Stormers
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets0–0–5Stormers5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Stormers by 22.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | Scarlets 0–34 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-03-22 | Scarlets 17–29 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-10-28 | Stormers 52–7 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
| 2022-11-25 | Stormers 36–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-05-21 | Scarlets 21–26 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.