Scarlets vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stormers host Scarlets on Saturday 24 October at DHL Stadium, Cape Town, so Stormers are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Scarlets 28.7%draw 2.5%68.8% StormersStormers 84.8%draw 2.5%12.7% ScarletsScarlets 18.2%draw 2.5%79.3% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stormers v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stormers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 35 Stormers, half of them between 3 Stormers and 22 Stormers, with the middle run at 11 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 35-24 on an open one.
Why Stormers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stormers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stormers, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Stormers 1845, Scarlets 1273 — 572 points, favouring Stormers
Stormers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets0–0–5Stormers5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Stormers by 22.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | Scarlets 0–34 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-03-22 | Scarlets 17–29 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-10-28 | Stormers 52–7 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Danie Craven Stadium |
| 2022-11-25 | Stormers 36–19 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2022-05-21 | Scarlets 21–26 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.