Scarlets vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Scarlets 40.8%draw 2.5%56.7% ToulonToulon 80.3%draw 2.5%17.2% ScarletsScarlets 26.4%draw 2.5%71.1% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scarlets v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Toulon and 16 Scarlets, half of them between 10 Toulon and 6 Scarlets, with the middle run at 2 Toulon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scarlets winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scarlets, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Scarlets 1273, Toulon 1663 — 390 points, favouring Toulon
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets2–0–6Toulon8 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Toulon by 6.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-19 | Toulon 11–6 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2020-01-11 | Scarlets 15–27 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-11-22 | Toulon 17–16 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2018-01-20 | Scarlets 30–27 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2017-10-15 | Toulon 21–20 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.