Scarlets vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Scarlets 47.9%draw 2.5%49.6% ToulonToulon 64.3%draw 2.5%33.2% ScarletsScarlets 40.4%draw 2.5%57.1% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Toulon and 16 Scarlets, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scarlets, negative favours Toulon.
Scarlets 1334, Toulon 1435 — 100 points, favouring Toulon
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets3–0–6Toulon9 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Toulon by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-18 | Scarlets 28–0 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2020-09-19 | Toulon 11–6 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2020-01-11 | Scarlets 15–27 Toulon | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2019-11-22 | Toulon 17–16 Scarlets | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
| 2018-01-20 | Scarlets 30–27 Toulon | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.