Scarlets vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Scarlets 71.3%draw 2.5%26.2% VannesVannes 59.6%draw 2.5%37.9% ScarletsScarlets 55.6%draw 2.5%41.9% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scarlets v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Vannes and 28 Scarlets, half of them between 1 Vannes and 16 Scarlets, with the middle run at 6 Scarlets.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scarlets winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scarlets, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Scarlets 1273, Vannes 1280 — 7 points, favouring Vannes
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets1–0–0Vannes1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Scarlets by 10.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Scarlets 38–28 Vannes | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.