Scarlets vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Scarlets 69.5%draw 2.5%28.0% ZebreZebre 50.5%draw 2.5%47.0% ScarletsScarlets 58.9%draw 2.5%38.6% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Zebre and 29 Scarlets, with the middle run at 6 Scarlets.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scarlets, negative favours Zebre.
Scarlets 1334, Zebre 1309 — 26 points, favouring Scarlets
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets14–0–0Zebre14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 19.9 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Scarlets by 24.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Scarlets 36–17 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-10-25 | Scarlets 30–8 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-05-17 | Zebre 18–32 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-10-15 | Scarlets 36–12 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-03-26 | Zebre 24–41 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.