Scarlets vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Scarlets 79.7%draw 2.5%17.8% ZebreZebre 44.6%draw 2.5%52.9% ScarletsScarlets 67.0%draw 2.5%30.5% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scarlets v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scarlets wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Zebre and 30 Scarlets, half of them between 1 Scarlets and 19 Scarlets, with the middle run at 9 Scarlets.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-14 on a tight afternoon and 33-24 on an open one.
Why Scarlets are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scarlets winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scarlets, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Scarlets 1273, Zebre 1071 — 203 points, favouring Scarlets
Scarlets are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scarlets14–0–0Zebre14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 19.9 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Scarlets by 24.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Scarlets 36–17 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-10-25 | Scarlets 30–8 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2024-05-17 | Zebre 18–32 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-10-15 | Scarlets 36–12 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2022-03-26 | Zebre 24–41 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.