Scotland vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Scotland 32.2%draw 1.7%66.1% South AfricaSouth Africa 77.8%draw 1.7%20.5% ScotlandScotland 26.3%draw 1.7%72.0% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 South Africa and 15 Scotland, with the middle run at 5 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Scotland are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scotland, negative favours South Africa.
Scotland 1730, South Africa 2036 — 306 points, favouring South Africa
Scotland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland5–0–26South Africa31 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · South Africa by 15.1 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · South Africa by 18.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | South Africa 42–28 Scotland | Nations Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-11-10 | Scotland 15–32 South Africa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2023-09-10 | South Africa 18–3 Scotland | — | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
| 2021-11-13 | Scotland 15–30 South Africa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2018-11-17 | Scotland 20–26 South Africa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 31. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.