Scotland vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Scotland 21.9%draw 1.6%76.5% South AfricaSouth Africa 90.9%draw 1.6%7.5% ScotlandScotland 14.2%draw 1.6%84.2% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scotland v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 31 South Africa and 13 Scotland, half of them between 18 South Africa and 1 South Africa, with the middle run at 7 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Scotland are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scotland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scotland, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Scotland 2193, South Africa 2512 — 319 points, favouring South Africa
Scotland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland5–0–26South Africa31 meetings, 1906 to 2026 · South Africa by 15.1 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · South Africa by 18.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | South Africa 42–28 Scotland | Nations Championship | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-11-10 | Scotland 15–32 South Africa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2023-09-10 | South Africa 18–3 Scotland | — | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
| 2021-11-13 | Scotland 15–30 South Africa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2018-11-17 | Scotland 20–26 South Africa | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 31. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.