Scotland vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Scotland 97.0%2.0% SpainSpain 5.2%93.8% ScotlandScotland 95.6%3.4% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Scotland v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scotland and 53 Scotland, half of them between 9 Scotland and 38 Scotland, with the middle run at 21 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scotland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scotland, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Scotland 2193, Spain 1566 — 627 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland5–0–0Spain5 meetings, 1986 to 1999 · Scotland by 45.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-10-16 | Scotland 48–0 Spain | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 1998-12-05 | Scotland 85–3 Spain | — | Murrayfield |
| 1995-05-06 | Spain 7–62 Scotland | — | Ciudad Universitaria |
| 1987-04-19 | Scotland 25–7 Spain | — | Murrayfield |
| 1986-05-01 | Spain 17–39 Scotland | — | — |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.