Scotland vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Scotland 93.9%5.1% SpainSpain 8.3%90.7% ScotlandScotland 92.4%6.6% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Scotland and 51 Scotland, with the middle run at 21 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-22 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scotland, negative favours Spain.
Scotland 1730, Spain 1064 — 666 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland1–0–0Spain1 meeting, 1999 to 1999 · Scotland by 48.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-10-16 | Scotland 48–0 Spain | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.