Scotland vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Scotland 95.8%3.2% TongaTonga 6.9%92.1% ScotlandScotland 94.0%5.0% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Scotland and 51 Scotland, with the middle run at 21 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scotland, negative favours Tonga.
Scotland 1730, Tonga 938 — 792 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland4–0–0Tonga4 meetings, 1995 to 2025 · Scotland by 41.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Scotland 56–0 Tonga | — | Edinburgh |
| 2023-09-24 | Scotland 45–17 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Riviera |
| 2021-10-30 | Scotland 60–14 Tonga | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 1995-05-30 | Scotland 41–5 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Loftus Versfeld(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.