Scotland vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Scotland 97.2%1.8% TongaTonga 4.5%94.5% ScotlandScotland 96.0%3.0% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Scotland v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Scotland and 54 Scotland, half of them between 9 Scotland and 38 Scotland, with the middle run at 22 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-25 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Scotland winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Scotland, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Scotland 2193, Tonga 1454 — 739 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland8–0–1Tonga9 meetings, 1974 to 2025 · Scotland by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Scotland 56–0 Tonga | — | Edinburgh |
| 2023-09-24 | Scotland 45–17 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Riviera |
| 2021-10-30 | Scotland 60–14 Tonga | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2014-11-22 | Scotland 37–12 Tonga | — | Rugby Park |
| 2012-11-24 | Scotland 15–21 Tonga | — | Pittodrie Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.