Scotland vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Scotland 94.2%4.8% UruguayUruguay 12.6%86.4% ScotlandScotland 90.3%8.7% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Scotland wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scotland and 48 Scotland, with the middle run at 19 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-12 on a tight afternoon and 42-23 on an open one.
Why Scotland are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Scotland, negative favours Uruguay.
Scotland 1730, Uruguay 1177 — 553 points, favouring Scotland
Scotland are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Scotland2–0–0Uruguay2 meetings, 1999 to 2024 · Scotland by 21.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-27 | Uruguay 19–31 Scotland | — | Estadio Charrua |
| 1999-10-08 | Scotland 43–12 Uruguay | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.