Argentina v Australia
Set a scoreline and see where it sits among the 5,000 simulated runs behind this fixture. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
ArgentinaAustraliaThe steppers skip 1, 2 and 4. Points come in fives, threes and twos with a conversion needing a try in front of it, so no match has ever finished on any of them.
22.4% of runs finished in this bin — within 2 points either way.
48 points is around the 53rd percentile of the total — the middle run scored 47.
Those two figures are separate readings and are not multiplied together. The simulation draws the gap and the amount of scoring independently, so one bar of the histogram covers many scorelines and the payload holds nothing about which of them came up with which gap.
That is the model’s own average scoreline. The model’s two answers point different ways here: it makes Australia the more likely winner while its average scoreline has the two level. That is not a contradiction — the average gap is taken over both winners, so a side that wins narrowly more often can still be behind on it. Nothing here scores any of it. The model’s gap is an average over both winners and yours is one afternoon, so the two are different kinds of number rather than one being right. How the model works.
Why Argentina are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Australia.
Argentina 2036, Australia 2101 — 66 points, favouring Australia
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Argentina and Australia have no fixture on the published schedule, so there is no ground, no kick-off forecast and no team sheet to put beside this. The prediction itself does not need any of them.
45 meetings — Argentina 10, Australia 31, 4 drawn. Last 2026: Argentina 28–28 Australia.
None of this reaches the model. Weather is not a feature, team selection is not a feature and the record is already inside both ratings, so the probability above does not move because any of it changed.
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