Castres Olympique v Pau
Set a scoreline and see where it sits among the 5,000 simulated runs behind this fixture. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres OlympiquePauThe steppers skip 1, 2 and 4. Points come in fives, threes and twos with a conversion needing a try in front of it, so no match has ever finished on any of them.
10.8% of runs finished in this bin — Pau by 3 to 7.
51 points is around the 52nd percentile of the total — the middle run scored 50.
Those two figures are separate readings and are not multiplied together. The simulation draws the gap and the amount of scoring independently, so one bar of the histogram covers many scorelines and the payload holds nothing about which of them came up with which gap.
That is the model’s own average scoreline. Nothing here scores any of it. The model’s gap is an average over both winners and yours is one afternoon, so the two are different kinds of number rather than one being right. How the model works.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Castres Olympique 1456, Pau 1818 — 362 points, favouring Pau
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Pau are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Castres Olympique are on 48.4%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Castres Olympique and Pau have no fixture on the published schedule, so there is no ground, no kick-off forecast and no team sheet to put beside this. The prediction itself does not need any of them.
25 meetings — Castres Olympique 15, Pau 10. Last 2026: Pau 35–26 Castres Olympique.
None of this reaches the model. Weather is not a feature, team selection is not a feature and the record is already inside both ratings, so the probability above does not move because any of it changed.
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