Ospreys v Pau
Set a scoreline and see where it sits among the 5,000 simulated runs behind this fixture. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
OspreysPauThe steppers skip 1, 2 and 4. Points come in fives, threes and twos with a conversion needing a try in front of it, so no match has ever finished on any of them.
19.1% of runs finished in this bin — within 2 points either way.
52 points is around the 56th percentile of the total — the middle run scored 49.
Those two figures are separate readings and are not multiplied together. The simulation draws the gap and the amount of scoring independently, so one bar of the histogram covers many scorelines and the payload holds nothing about which of them came up with which gap.
Your pick names a different winner from the model, which makes Pau more likely. The model’s two answers point different ways here: it makes Pau the more likely winner while its average scoreline has Ospreys. That is not a contradiction — the average gap is taken over both winners, so a side that wins narrowly more often can still be behind on it. Nothing here scores any of it. The model’s gap is an average over both winners and yours is one afternoon, so the two are different kinds of number rather than one being right. How the model works.
Why Ospreys are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Ospreys winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Ospreys, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Ospreys 1567, Pau 1818 — 251 points, favouring Pau
Ospreys are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Pau are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Ospreys are on 48.0%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Ospreys and Pau have no fixture on the published schedule, so there is no ground, no kick-off forecast and no team sheet to put beside this. The prediction itself does not need any of them.
3 meetings — Ospreys 2, Pau 1. Last 2025: Pau 28–31 Ospreys.
None of this reaches the model. Weather is not a feature, team selection is not a feature and the record is already inside both ratings, so the probability above does not move because any of it changed.
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