Italy v South Africa
Set a scoreline and see where it sits among the 5,000 simulated runs behind this fixture. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
ItalySouth AfricaThe steppers skip 1, 2 and 4. Points come in fives, threes and twos with a conversion needing a try in front of it, so no match has ever finished on any of them.
7.5% of runs finished in this bin — South Africa by 23 to 27.
59 points is around the 54th percentile of the total — the middle run scored 57.
Those two figures are separate readings and are not multiplied together. The simulation draws the gap and the amount of scoring independently, so one bar of the histogram covers many scorelines and the payload holds nothing about which of them came up with which gap.
That is the model’s own average scoreline. Nothing here scores any of it. The model’s gap is an average over both winners and yours is one afternoon, so the two are different kinds of number rather than one being right. How the model works.
Why Italy are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Italy 1827, South Africa 2512 — 685 points, favouring South Africa
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
- Ground
- Allianz Stadium, Sydney
- Elevation
- 38 m
- Kick-off
- 2026-11-07, 11:40 UTC
- Competition
- Nations Championship
19 meetings — Italy 1, South Africa 18. Last 2025: Italy 14–32 South Africa.
None of this reaches the model. Weather is not a feature, team selection is not a feature and the record is already inside both ratings, so the probability above does not move because any of it changed.
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