Benetton Treviso v Ulster
Set a scoreline and see where it sits among the 5,000 simulated runs behind this fixture. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton TrevisoUlsterThe steppers skip 1, 2 and 4. Points come in fives, threes and twos with a conversion needing a try in front of it, so no match has ever finished on any of them.
19.5% of runs finished in this bin — within 2 points either way.
48 points is around the 55th percentile of the total — the middle run scored 46.
Those two figures are separate readings and are not multiplied together. The simulation draws the gap and the amount of scoring independently, so one bar of the histogram covers many scorelines and the payload holds nothing about which of them came up with which gap.
Your pick names a different winner from the model, which makes Benetton Treviso more likely. The model’s two answers point different ways here: it makes Benetton Treviso the more likely winner while its average scoreline has Ulster. That is not a contradiction — the average gap is taken over both winners, so a side that wins narrowly more often can still be behind on it. Nothing here scores any of it. The model’s gap is an average over both winners and yours is one afternoon, so the two are different kinds of number rather than one being right. How the model works.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Ulster.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Ulster 1582 — 169 points, favouring Ulster
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Benetton Treviso are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Ulster are on 48.0%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Benetton Treviso and Ulster have no fixture on the published schedule, so there is no ground, no kick-off forecast and no team sheet to put beside this. The prediction itself does not need any of them.
16 meetings — Benetton Treviso 2, Ulster 13, 1 drawn. Last 2025: Ulster 47–13 Benetton Treviso.
None of this reaches the model. Weather is not a feature, team selection is not a feature and the record is already inside both ratings, so the probability above does not move because any of it changed.
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