Italy v Wales
Set a scoreline and see where it sits among the 5,000 simulated runs behind this fixture. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
ItalyWalesThe steppers skip 1, 2 and 4. Points come in fives, threes and twos with a conversion needing a try in front of it, so no match has ever finished on any of them.
15.1% of runs finished in this bin — Wales by 3 to 7.
49 points is around the 52nd percentile of the total — the middle run scored 48.
Those two figures are separate readings and are not multiplied together. The simulation draws the gap and the amount of scoring independently, so one bar of the histogram covers many scorelines and the payload holds nothing about which of them came up with which gap.
That is the model’s own average scoreline. The model’s two answers point different ways here: it makes Italy the more likely winner while its average scoreline has Wales. That is not a contradiction — the average gap is taken over both winners, so a side that wins narrowly more often can still be behind on it. Nothing here scores any of it. The model’s gap is an average over both winners and yours is one afternoon, so the two are different kinds of number rather than one being right. How the model works.
Why Italy are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Italy winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Italy, a bar to the left helps Wales.
Italy 1827, Wales 1868 — 42 points, favouring Wales
Italy are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Italy are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Wales are on 48.4%, and a draw takes the other 3.0%.
Italy and Wales have no fixture on the published schedule, so there is no ground, no kick-off forecast and no team sheet to put beside this. The prediction itself does not need any of them.
35 meetings — Italy 5, Wales 29, 1 drawn. Last 2026: Wales 31–17 Italy.
None of this reaches the model. Weather is not a feature, team selection is not a feature and the record is already inside both ratings, so the probability above does not move because any of it changed.
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