Sharks vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sharks 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 75.1%draw 2.5%22.4% SharksSharks 31.1%draw 2.5%66.4% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sharks v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Toulousain and 16 Sharks, half of them between 9 Stade Toulousain and 6 Sharks, with the middle run at 1 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Sharks are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sharks, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Sharks 1746, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 246 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks0–0–3Stade Toulousain3 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Stade Toulousain by 27.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Stade Toulousain 56–19 Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-01-11 | Sharks 8–20 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-04-08 | Stade Toulousain 54–20 Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.