Sharks vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sharks 45.3%draw 2.5%52.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 74.8%draw 2.5%22.7% SharksSharks 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Toulousain and 16 Sharks, with the middle run at 1 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Sharks are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sharks, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Sharks 1613, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 251 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks0–0–3Stade Toulousain3 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Stade Toulousain by 27.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Stade Toulousain 56–19 Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-01-11 | Sharks 8–20 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-04-08 | Stade Toulousain 54–20 Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.