Sharks vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sharks 56.9%draw 2.5%40.6% StormersStormers 71.1%draw 2.5%26.4% SharksSharks 41.3%draw 2.5%56.2% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sharks v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stormers and 22 Sharks, half of them between 6 Stormers and 11 Sharks, with the middle run at 2 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 27 and 65 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Sharks are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sharks, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Sharks 1746, Stormers 1845 — 99 points, favouring Stormers
Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks9–1–10Stormers20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stormers by 0.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Stormers by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Stormers 39–22 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2026-01-31 | Sharks 36–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2026-01-24 | Stormers 19–30 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Stormers 24–20 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2024-11-30 | Sharks 21–15 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.