Sharks vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sharks 75.5%draw 2.5%22.0% Western ForceWestern Force 41.0%draw 2.5%56.5% SharksSharks 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Western Force and 32 Sharks, with the middle run at 8 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Sharks are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sharks, negative favours Western Force.
Sharks 1613, Western Force 1463 — 150 points, favouring Sharks
Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks2–0–0Western Force2 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Sharks by 15.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-06 | Sharks 37–12 Western Force | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2015-03-28 | Sharks 15–9 Western Force | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.