Sharks vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Sharks 87.4%draw 2.5%10.1% ZebreZebre 23.3%draw 2.5%74.2% SharksSharks 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Sharks v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 39 Sharks, half of them between 5 Sharks and 26 Sharks, with the middle run at 13 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Sharks are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Sharks winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Sharks, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Sharks 1746, Zebre 1071 — 676 points, favouring Sharks
Sharks are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks5–0–1Zebre6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Sharks by 19.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Sharks 54–19 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-03-22 | Sharks 35–34 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-04-07 | Sharks 47–3 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-11-10 | Zebre 12–10 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-09-23 | Zebre 37–42 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.