Sharks vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Sharks 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% ZebreZebre 29.2%draw 2.5%68.3% SharksSharks 74.9%draw 2.5%22.6% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Sharks wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Zebre and 35 Sharks, with the middle run at 10 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Sharks are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Sharks, negative favours Zebre.
Sharks 1613, Zebre 1309 — 304 points, favouring Sharks
Sharks are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Sharks5–0–1Zebre6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Sharks by 19.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Sharks 54–19 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-03-22 | Sharks 35–34 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-04-07 | Sharks 47–3 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2023-11-10 | Zebre 12–10 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-09-23 | Zebre 37–42 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.