South Africa vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
South Africa 93.5%5.5% SpainSpain 4.5%94.5% South AfricaSouth Africa 94.0%5.0% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are South Africa wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 South Africa and 53 South Africa, with the middle run at 21 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 80 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why South Africa are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours South Africa, negative favours Spain.
South Africa 2036, Spain 1064 — 972 points, favouring South Africa
South Africa are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
South Africa1–0–0Spain1 meeting, 1999 to 1999 · South Africa by 44.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-10-10 | South Africa 47–3 Spain | Rugby World Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.